Toronto Maple Leafs centre Auston Matthews (34) fails to get the shot past Carolina Hurricanes goaltender Pyotr Kochetkov (52)

17/03/2024 06:28

TORONTO — What’s frightening and relieving about these final few weeks of Toronto Maple Leafs hockey is that none of it matters.

Among all NHL teams in playoff position or within sniffing distance, none has a greater likelihood of finishing their season precisely in the same standings position as the Maple Leafs are now.

According to SportsClubStats.com, Toronto has an 85 per cent chance of finishing fifth in the Eastern Conference. Their odds of locking into the Atlantic Division’s third-seed are even greater.

With the two-seed Florida Panthers nine points ahead and the four-seed Tampa Bay Lightning seven points behind, the Leafs’ final 16 games of the regular season are less about wins and losses and more about health and process.

Optimize the lines. Settle on some working defence pairs. Determine a pecking order for the goalies.

It’s a blessing and a curse.

The good news is that the injured Mitch Marner and Calle Järnkrok should take their sweet time rehabbing, coach Sheldon Keefe may be able to load-manage his best players’ ice time down the stretch, and next week’s double dose of back-to-back games will give both Ilya Samsonov and Joseph Woll equal tune-up time in the nets.

But the dangers just might outweigh the benefits.

In a sport that extols the virtues of surviving adversity, the Leafs are at risk of getting too comfortable in their three-seed hammock.

Take Saturday’s 5-4 blown-lead shootout loss to the Carolina Hurricanes, and some of the losing team’s post-game commentary, for example.

Absolutely, the home team did some great things to pepper 40 shots and score four even-strength goals against one of the better defensive sides in the league.

Captain John Tavares, slick William Nylander, and David Kämpf (check notes again), yes, David Kämpf all beat goalie Pyotr Kochetkov on clean breaks to the net with smooth, skilled finish.

On the flip side, the Leafs lost the even-strength run of play to a legit contender. They blew a 3-0 second-period lead and a 4-2 lead with just 92 seconds remaining in regulation.

They were also given a 4-on-3 power-play in overtime and came up empty, leaving an atypically buzzy, sudsy home crowd disappointed on St. Patty’s Eve.

“That’s Leafs hockey for ya,” one member of the victorious Hurricanes said, walking off the ice.

What stands out almost as much as Carolina’s stunning late comeback — Sebastian Aho scored twice in desperation with Kochetkov pulled for the extra attacker — is Toronto’s collective shrug over the wasted point.

“Against these guys, you really got to grind your way to get your chances. So, I think we did a really good job of doing that,” Nylander said. “Playing a team like this is probably what playoff hockey is gonna be close to be like, so I think it was a good test for us, and I thought we played really well.”

Added Nick Robertson: “We weren’t as sharp as we could be. I thought that we played a good game up until probably the end of the third. But I get it: Guys are tired and sometimes mistakes happen.”

And Keefe: “The result sucks. But I thought we stood in there. I thought, at times, carried play…. A lot of encouraging things here today.”

The coach was encouraged by his group’s special teams, despite getting shut out on their own power-play for the eighth time over their past nine outings, and giving up their seventh power-play goal in a six-game span.

To be fair, Marner skates on the top unit of both, and Järnkrok is integral to the PK.

Still, the Leafs’ special teams have been outscored 8-1 in March, and no playoff-bound team has a worse PK (77.2 per cent, 23rd overall) — an area GM Brad Treliving attempted to remedy with all three of his trade deadline depth additions.

“We’re looking for progress here on special teams,” said Keefe, who acknowledged odd-man situations as the main culprit for this loss.

Yes, the Leafs want progress. But the urgency to summon that progress isn’t there, yet.

We suspect comfort in the standings has something to do with it.

If comfort morphs into complacency, however, that could be a problem.

Nylander, for one, isn’t so stressed that Toronto’s power-play is in its worst rut of the year.

“We were on a heater [in February]. I mean, it had 50 per cent for a while,” Nylander said.

“So, I mean, you get some and you’re gonna not get some. So, it’s whatever.”

Fox’s Fast Five

• It took two top-nine forwards — Marner (high-ankle sprain) and Järnkrok (hand) — to get injured, but Robertson squeezed into a game for the first time in 16 days.

“This is the spot where Robbie has been at his best,” Keefe predicted pre-game. “To me, he's played his best hockey when he's been out of the lineup and has come back in. I'm fully expecting him to make an impact.”

That he did. Robertson ripped his ninth goal of the season, finishing off a great hustle play by Tavares, who was dominant in the second period.

“I don’t know how many games it is now where he’s been scratched and come in and scored right away. So, it gives us that boost,” Keefe said. “He worked hard tonight.”

• A modest proposal: Every time the Maple Leafs are tempted to wear their alternate black uniforms, they instead wear their beautiful kelly-green St. Pats getups.

Let’s make the world a more beautiful place, shall we?

• Evgeny Kuznetsov and close friend Ilya Samsonov talk roughly four times per week.

The former Capitals teammates have leaned on each other during a roller-coaster campaign that has seen them both clear waivers before earning redemption in the second half.

“I’m staying off social media over 61 days,” Kuznetsov told reporters at morning skate. “I have no idea what’s outside of this locker room. I have no idea what the trades are like and who’s playing where and it’s kind of nice to live on the other side.”

The new Hurricane has come out the other side of the player assistance program refreshed and refocused. He looks dangerous despite spending 50 days off the ice.

“When you play games every day, you don’t realize how big the impact on your life that hockey makes,” Kuznetsov explained.

“And then when you step away a little bit, you get anxious, right? You kind of go like, ‘Ah.’ It’s a privilege to be able to step up and look from the side and see what’s your real needs in life and what you actually wanted to do for a living, right? I know we get paid a lot of money and stuff like that, but this is life. This is what we do. We travel. We shower with the boys. We do all this stuff, which sounds weird, but you miss that part a lot. So that’s what motivated me to come back every day and work hard.”

• Kuznetov on Samsonov — now 13-2-1 over his past 16 starts — persevering through his struggles in the intense Toronto market:

“You guys been so hard on players, in general, here over the time. I’m so happy that he doesn’t speak English well, so he doesn’t understand everything. And that’s huge for him.”

• William Nylander tied a career-high in points (87) with 16 games to go, while younger brother Alexander enjoyed a three-point night and has now scored eight goals and 11 points since his trade to Columbus 11 games ago.

In three weeks as a Blue Jacket, Alex has produced more than in his three years in Buffalo and one-and-a-half years in Pittsburgh combined.

“He’s been battling his entire career and been given a really good chance to play and showing what he can do,” William said. “I mean, super proud brother.”