The Kyle Dubas year one report card with the Pittsburgh Penguins

18/04/2024 17:04

Giving out some grades.

The first year of the Kyle Dubas era of Pittsburgh Penguins hockey is officially in the books, and it did not end the way anybody hoped it would when it began. The Penguins missed the playoffs for the second year in a row due to some pretty significant flaws that not only remained from the previous season, but also in some ways managed to get even worse.

While it was only Dubas' first year on the job, he still had plenty of fingerprints on this roster and overturned half of it in that one year. He is as open to criticism as any of the previous general managers that put players on this roster.

So now that we have an official season in the books, let's hand out some grades from year one of the Dubas era.

I am trying to balance out what the trade looked like at the time, what was given up/committed and what the eventual results ended up being.

The one common theme I kept coming back to when looking back on all of this was, "I see what they were trying to do here" or "this made sense at the time," but in most of the cases it just simply did not work as anybody planned. That, to me, is mildly concerning because that seemed to be a common refrain to his time in Toronto. Few things ever really worked out as planned, which was a big reason why his team, despite having a great core of young talent, never really did anything beyond finishing in third place in the division, eighth to 10th place in the overall standings, and never won a playoff game beyond the first round.

Not trying to sound harsh. Just realistic.

Anyway, on to the grades.

Erik Karlsson trade: B

Karlsson was a definite disappointment versus preseason expectations, but there are a few reasons I am holding this at a B and not going lower. First is the fact they gave up so little to actually get him. They essentially dumped all of their bad contracts, lowered their salary cap hit for this season, and gained another potential impact player. He just did not make the expected impact. That also does not mean he was bad. He had some bad (and very bad) moments, but in general I think he was a good, but not great, player. The remaining contract is ugly if he repeats this performance again next season, but I think there is a chance he comes back better next season after a full year here. I also can not get past how little they gave up. I still have very little issue with any of this.

Reilly Smith trade: C

This is one of those "good idea at the time" moves. I have no complaints about trading a third-round pick for Smith, and it seemed like a great replacement for Jason Zucker. For whatever reason, it just didn't work. Smith had one of his worst offensive seasons in years, seemed to make almost no impact, and was just generally invisible. He still has one year remaining at $5 million. If the trade for him wasn't so small this might have been a D.

Ryan Graves signing: F

This was probably the most controversial signing of the offseason because of the term and salary cap hit for an okay, but not great player. The thing that gave me some optimism is that Graves had some success in previous stops playing next to high-level defensemen. But ... maybe we should have been more concerned that Colorado and New Jersey were willing to move on from a young defensemen without much concern. Graves had a brutal year and is signed longer than any player currently on the roster. Just a mess of a move.

Tristan Jarry re-signing: D

Again. I get it. The goalie market was thin. He was probably the best free agent available. There was also some reason to believe that a fully healthy Jarry might be productive. And for half of a season, he was. But the season ended in the same way most of Tristan Jarry's seasons have ended — him not being counted on down the stretch either because of injury or ineffective play. Despite getting that big contract he ended up losing his job to Alex Nedeljkovic and didn't even get a pity start thrown his way in a game that didn't count in Game 82. Now you have four more years committed to a goalie that you simply can not count on in the biggest moments. That is a problem.

Lars Eller signing: A

I think this was probably one of the moves that actually turned out better than expected. Eller is not going to score much, he is probably best suited to be a fourth-line center at this point than a third-line center, but I think he played very well and does not cost much. If he repeats this performance next season you might get a decent draft pick back.

Alex Nedeljkovic signing: B

Nedeljkvoic was really good in the first half, hit a huge lull in the middle of the season and into the second half, then took over the starting job and gave them a fighting chance in the end. Overall, he was a fine backup goalie option at a good price. Solid signing.

The rest of the bottom-six signings/additions: F

This includes Noel Accari, Matt Nieto, Jansen Harkins and every other player that was brought in and rotated through these spots (Jesse Puljujarvi, Emil Bemstrom, etc.).

It was clear from the very beginning what the Penguins' plan here was: They wanted the first two lines and the power play to carry the offense, and then rely on a very defensive minded bottom-six to lock things down and hopefully skate to a 0-0 tie every night.

In theory, again, I can see the vision.

In reality, it was a huge miss.

The second line never found consistency (due in large part to Smith not working out), the power play was a mess that never got fixed, and the Penguins were then left as a one-line team because the bottom-six had zero threats to score. When the Penguins have been good in the Sidney Crosby-Evgeni Malkin-Kris Letang era, it has always been the result of having three — and often times — four lines that can all score. This team did not have that a year ago. It did not get any better this season. Most of these signings were small, short-term deals. But having Acciairi signed for multiple years is another big miss.

Jake Guentzel trade: B

I was very lukewarm on this trade at the time, but I am coming around on it, mainly because they did get more for a rental than most teams tend to get. My expectations for the prospects and the draft pick remain low, but getting an NHL player in Michael Bunting who seems to be exactly what this team needs in its lineup is a big get, especially with him being signed for a couple of more seasons. That alone makes it a solid return for a rental. I would have liked to have seen them be guaranteed a first-round pick, but Bunting is a really good get and they still have some lottery tickets to wait on. Maybe in a year or two depending on how those lottery tickets pan out this goes from a B to an A.

Overall approach/strategy/plan: C

Overall I like that he came in with a clear mindset of trying to still compete. You only get so many years of players like Crosby, Malkin and Letang and as long as they are still playing at a high level, you owe it to them, your team, your fans, and yourself to try and take advantage of that. I loved the mindset behind the Karlsson trade. I loved that the intent was to take another big swing at the fence.

That aspect of this gets an A. I have no problem going for it.

But I think there were some big problems in how that plan was orchestrated and put together. And that, ultimately, gets a much lower grade.

The bottom-six needed to score more. It did not, and that was obvious from the start.

They needed better and more reliable goaltending. They didn't get it and brought back the same starter that has let them down so many times on a significantly better contract.

They needed to get younger and faster, something that Dubas has spoken to on more than one occasion, and he ended up making them older and slower in some areas, and also burned through a lot of his salary cap flexibility with the signings of Graves and Accairi.

The weaknesses and problems that were a weakness and problem at the start of the season remain so at the end of the season. That alone is another problem.

Overall grade: C to C-

He inherited a bad situation from Ron Hextall, yes, but I can not ignore how many players on this roster were brought in by him and how consistently mediocre (to bad) most of them were across the board.

That ultimately produced a pretty mediocre roster that has the Penguins watching the playoffs.

Overall I think the jury is still very much out on him as an NHL general manager when you include both of his Toronto and Pittsburgh tenures. The results just have not matched the hype.

Again, the reality here is very simple — when he took over as the general manager in Toronto he already had Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Morgan Rielly and Nazem Kadri in place. When he took over in Pittsburgh he had Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang and Jake Guentzel already in place.

Despite those head starts — a great young core in one place and a great veteran core in the other place — he has put together one first place team (in a Frankenstein division) and saw his team win one game in the second round of the playoffs. Most general managers after this many years would not still have such a strong reputation with so few results.

Honestly, I think he needs to have an impressive offseason and a strong 2024-25 season. Not for his own job security, but for me to believe this is going to work.