Raptors Draft Watch: Early Consensus Top 6 picks

02/05/2024 19:02

With the NBA draft lottery fast approaching, we rounded up 12 draft boards to peek at the consensus top six picks, prospects that the Raptors may be in a position to select. Or not.

What if the Toronto Raptors manage to keep their lottery pick? Whether it's ideal or not, the Raptors have no say on this matter. It all comes down to the ping pong balls in a couple of weeks. While it may be a little premature to do a deep dive into the potential lottery prospects from the Raptors' perspective, it doesn't hurt to take a peek and get the lay of the land.

It was easy last year. We have Victor Wembanyama as a "Tier 1" talent at the top of the pyramid. At the same time, Scott Henderson and Brandon Miller flank him at the "Tier 2" spot. Then you have the Thompson twins, Jarace Walker, Cam Whitmore, and Taylor Hendricks, at the top of the 4-12 range.

This year? It's not as simple as that. Draft pundits aren't too excited about this draft due to the lack of high-end talent. Any of the last three years' second and third picks overall could easily be the #1 pick in this draft.

But before we do that, let's do some housekeeping notes.

Key Dates

Now that the ties have been broken, here are some of the relevant dates on the NBA calendar that affect the draft:

April 27 - NBA Early Entry Eligibility Deadline: Any player interested in entering the draft must submit the paperwork by this date.

May 11-12 - NBA G League Elite Camp: Combine for draft hopefuls who aren't projected to be drafted. Top performers have worked their way up in the Second Round, and some undrafted get a Two-Way Contract.

May 12 - NBA Draft Lottery: Raptors get their lottery fate.

May 12-19: NBA Draft Combine

June 16: NBA Draft Early Entry Entrant Withdrawal Deadline (5PM EST)

June 26: NBA Draft 1st Round

June 27: NBA Draft 2nd Round: There has been a major change this year. Instead of having a sprint second round to finish the entire draft in four hours, the NBA decided to make the "Nikola Jokic Taco Bell rule" to allow NBA teams to regroup and better prepare for the second round. With the second round happening the following night, teams could reassess their roster and future planning situation and perhaps allow more trade action. Teams will also have four minutes between picks to make their final decision.

Accounting

Incoming

• '24 Indiana Pacers 1st Round (Pick #19) received via Pascal Siakam Trade
• '24 Detroit Pistons 2nd Round (Pick #31) received via OG Anunoby Trade

Outgoing

• '24 2nd Round Pick to Indiana Pacers. No, this is not part of the Pascal Siakam trade. The final piece of the trade brought Marc Gasol and a championship to the 6ix in 2019. That pick has since travelled from Memphis to LA Clippers via a three-team trade last season, another three-team trade where the pick ended up in Philadelphia last November, and a trade deadline deal between Indiana/Philadelphia/San Antonio that brought the pick to Indiana.

Limbo

• '24 1st Round Pick

1-6: Toronto keeps the pick

Else: Conveys to San Antonio

Repercussions: If the Raptors don't convey the pick next season, the Raptors are on the clock again next draft with the same protection (top 6), and if it doesn't convey again, they will be Top 6 protected again in the 2026 draft. If the pick does not convey on any of these three draft cycles, it will become a 2026 2nd round pick and a 2027 2nd Round pick. Smart move if the front office's plan is for the Raptors to be extremely bad for two more seasons.

Is There a Consensus Top 6?

Based on the assessment of several draft boards, Alexandre Sarr is at the top. Still, Zaccharie Risacher's draft stock is on the rise. It may unseat Sarr as the #1 overall, especially with several mock drafts due to updating their 2-3 weeks-old rankings. As we await the fate of the Raptors' lottery pick, let's take a peek at the potential options for the Raptors if they manage to keep their pick.

Three prospects received the top pick: Sarr got the most with seven, Risacher got four, while Stephon Castle got The Ringer's top pick. Out of the 12 boards that we compared, we have twelve prospects that appeared at least once in at least one board's top six. Based on the average of these boards, we tried to make sense of the draft tiers in the lottery range:

Tier 1: Drafting 1st or 2nd

Alexander Sarr, C

Projected Draft Range: 1-2

The consensus for now is Alexandre Sarr, the 7'1" French big, playing his trades in Australia's NBL. He's got a nice light frame that will remind you of young Anthony Davis, Jonathan Isaac, and Evan Mobley. His combination of size, length, mobility, agility, motor, and fluidity allowed him to showcase great flashes of defensive versatility playing for Perth Wildcats. His body needs work, as with most young bigs entering the NBA, but he's more of a project offensively.

Zaccharie Risacher, Wing

Projected Draft Range: 1-2

The dark horse, or dare I say, "hipster pick" as the first overall pick, is another French prospect in Zacharie Risacher. The 6'8" wing's stock has risen dramatically over the past couple of months, as several of his swing skills are trending up, which adds more value to his versatility on both ends of the floor. Add the part that he's got a high-level feel for the game that you would typically see from the top versatile Euro guards/wings that plied their trades in the NBA.

Tier 2: Pick your poison

Nikola Topic, PG

Projected Draft Range: 2-5

There has yet to be a consensus #3 guy on this draft, as Topic lost his spot to Risacher as the consensus #2. Someone like Stephon Castle, Rob Dillingham, or Donovan Clingan can sneak up on him. His range is probably from 2 to 5, but he's perhaps the best point guard in this draft class. Topic is already polished enough to step into most teams' rotations either as a backup point guard or secondary creator. His size should allow teams to employ two-point-guard lineups, especially if Topic can show that he can play passable defense.

Reed Sheppard, SG

Projected Draft Range: 3-8

You can't deny the body of work that Reed Sheppard's shown despite ending his career as a Wildcat with a dud. He's an excellent shooter, something that can't be said for 99% of the players on the Raptors' roster this season. He's a feisty defender and strong mentally. Something that can't be used to describe the Raptors this season. Sheppard's swing skill is whether he can transition into a combo guard, as he's undersized as a shooting guard. His listed 6'3" might be generous, and his smaller than his listed height at the combine, his stock might go down a bit. However, shooting's a premium in this league, so just look at how the Raptors' front office has struggled to find shooters since the championship season.

Stephon Castle, SG

Projected Draft Range: 3-8

Wait, there's a guard in this draft that's got decent size, can shoot from the perimeter, put the ball on the floor and get to the basket, and a hard-nosed defender? Can Castle be a consistent (and efficient) perimeter shooter? If the answer is "Yes," the Raptors should not hesitate to take this Husky, especially if he can offer similar utility, if not better, than Gary Trent Jr. at a fraction of the cost. He's a skilled player who is also mentally and physically tough, something that the Raptors are short of as well.

Matas Buzelis, Wing

Projected Draft Range: 5-10

If the Raptors decide to revive the Vision 6'9," the best available big wing after Risacher is Matas Buzelis. Buzelis is taller than Risacher, as he's 6'11." His size and his versatility in the offense make him an intriguing prospect. He has the handle, shooting, and playmaking, which you don't see often at his size. While Buzelis' skills may be rough around the edges, he's shown enough promise that many of those skills can improve. His skinny frame may initially prevent him from seeing extended minutes. Still, his good feel for the game and his versatility and skill set should make it easy to slot him at the end of the rotation. Besides, the Raptors have learned their lesson the hard way. If they select him, they can put Buzelis through the same strength and conditioning program, like, before the season, instead of three months into the season.

Rob Dillingham, PG

Projected Draft Range: 5-10

Much like his Kentucky backcourt partner Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham had an excellent freshman campaign but flamed out in the early part of March Madness. Dillingham is more of a scoring guard but is competent enough as a ball handler, so he can easily slot in as a combo guard at the NBA level. He can be an instant offense off the bench, especially when facing the back end of the opposing team's rotation, as his size and his slight frame can work against him, especially on the defensive end. Given how Dillingham struggled against the zone in the tourney, the Raptors might be one of his worst destinations, as opposing teams routinely throw out the zone against the Raptors. However, suppose Dillingham can show that he can be a consistent perimeter shooter AND finisher around the basket. In that case, he can be a great option off the bench for teams like the Raptors.