Predicting The Winner Of The 150th Running Of The Kentucky Derby

04/05/2024 21:07

Today is the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby and all of the stars are out to see the big race.

The last few years have seen all kinds of wild occurrences before, during and after the race. Whether it's late scratches paving the way for longshot wins (Rich Strike, 2022) or a post-race winner disqualification (Maximum Security, 2019 and Medina Spirit, 2021), you never know what's going to happen during the Run for the Roses.

But the most important thing people are looking for is which horse can win the first jewel of the prestigious Triple Crown. The last 10 years have seen only two horses - American Pharoah and Justify - win the Derby before going on to cross the wire first at the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. But outside of those two, no other horse has won more than a single leg of the Triple Crown races since 2015.

So who are the contenders this year?

The morning line favorite and likely post-time favorite is Fierceness (3-0-1 in five starts) who boasts one of the most impressive teams behind him at Churchill Downs today. 

Trained by two-time Derby winner Todd Pletcher and jockeyed by three-time Derby winner John Velazquez, Fierceness has the most impressive wins of any horse in the field. His last outing saw him win the Florida Derby by 13.5 lengths. However, he'll have a lot more ground to cover at Churchill Downs than others due to his 17 post starting position.

But one horse could be the early leader or at least take it easy until the final stretch is Sierra Leone. Trained by Brad Cox, this horse has won three of his four starts including back-to-back stakes wins this year. He has never finished lower than second in a race. Sierra Leone will start at post 2.

2021 Kentucky Derby winner Brad Cox has two horses in the race: Catching Freedom  (post 4, jockey Flavien Prat) and Just a Touch (post 8, jockey Florent Geroux).

If you want a little foreign flavor on your betting ticket, Japan's Forever Young (post 11, jockey Ryusei Sakai) is an undefeated 5-0 but has never raced on American soil. He has the fifth-best morning line odds.

But our pick for today is going to be Fierceness. The connections are strong, the horse has posted some of the best figures of anyone in the field and the pick just feels right heading into the evening.

Post time for the Kentucky Derby is 6:57 p.m. ET.